Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.97 – 183.68

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 81.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.6 ±13.5

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 101.66Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 118.96Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8717Cyber Vipers

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 92.35Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.2 ±17

8387MECH Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 32.37Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 35.4Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3009High Scalers

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 115.91Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7425, 4421, 8717

/ 100 compat

Projected

313 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7425, 4421, 8717

Auto

49.9 15%

Teleop

183.9 56%

Endgame

93.6 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8387, 9233, 3009

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8387, 9233, 3009

Auto

23.2 13%

Teleop

122.4 70%

Endgame

30.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score313pts

Blue projected score183.7pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.3
Score range: 155–342
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.6Season APEX221.2

49.9Auto23.2

183.9Teleop122.4

93.6Endgame30.2

9Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	19
teleop	158	25
endgame	57	30
foul	0	0
total	259	74

Result

Final score

259 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 81.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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