Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.76 – 133.96

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

6 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178 ±20.8

1726N.E.R.D.S. (Nifty Engineering Robotics Design Squad)

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 3.2Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7654Robot In Shed

Provisional

Season APEX 83Event APEX 38.61Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11235Golden Ratio

Provisional

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 9.95Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.8 ±18.4

9002Falcon Dynamics - Foothill High School

Provisional

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX -9.97Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6824LVA Robot Pigeons

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 46.23Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 97.7Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1726, 7654, 11235

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1726, 7654, 11235

Auto

7.3 13%

Teleop

19.0 34%

Endgame

30.3 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9002, 6824, 3882

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9002, 6824, 3882

Auto

17.6 13%

Teleop

77.9 59%

Endgame

36.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.8pts

Blue projected score134pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.2
Score range: 23–163
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 114 vs event baseline 163.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178Season APEX278.8

7.3Auto17.6

19Teleop77.9

30.3Endgame36.2

104Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	23
teleop	1	74
endgame	1	11
foul	0	0
total	6	108

Result

Final score

6 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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