Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.39 – 193.94

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316 ±18.4

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 40.92Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3577Saint's Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 28.21Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1011CRUSH

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX -12.74Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.8 ±16.2

10905Team LOVE

Season APEX 70Event APEX 6.8Rank 25Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 89

9018ElRobotiKO

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 59.77Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 127.37Rank 3Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10903, 3577, 1011

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10903, 3577, 1011

Auto

15.4 35%

Teleop

29.3 66%

Endgame

-0.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10905, 9018, 987

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10905, 9018, 987

Auto

31.1 16%

Teleop

110.9 58%

Endgame

48.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.4pts

Blue projected score193.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137.5
Score range: 27–223
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 163.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316Season APEX318.8

15.4Auto31.1

29.3Teleop110.9

-0.5Endgame48

61Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	29
teleop	82	101
endgame	55	47
foul	0	0
total	164	177

Result

Final score

164 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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