Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.93 – 123.03

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 85.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.1 ±9.3

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 92.5Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 181.92Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 159.51Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.7 ±13.9

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 70.43Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 2.39Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 50.21Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4270, 9406, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.9 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4270, 9406, 7426

Auto

82.1 19%

Teleop

247.4 59%

Endgame

92.4 22%

Strengths

· 9406 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2438, 9037, 6479

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2438, 9037, 6479

Auto

32.8 27%

Teleop

74.8 62%

Endgame

12.8 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score433.9pts

Blue projected score123pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 310.9
Score range: 94–463
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 161.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.1Season APEX326.7

82.1Auto32.8

247.4Teleop74.8

92.4Endgame12.8

1Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	25
teleop	200	38
endgame	42	63
foul	0	15
total	281	141

Result

Final score

281 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 85.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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