Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

193.24 – 240.82

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.8 ±15.8

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 23.26Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 118.32Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6824LVA Robot Pigeons

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 51.66Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420 ±13.3

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 96.43Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 73.31Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 71.08Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8338, 8005, 6824

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8338, 8005, 6824

Auto

38.4 20%

Teleop

105.5 56%

Endgame

44.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7425, 10903, 6479

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7425, 10903, 6479

Auto

46.4 19%

Teleop

130.6 55%

Endgame

61.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score193.2pts

Blue projected score240.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.6
Score range: 160–274
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.8Season APEX420

38.4Auto46.4

105.5Teleop130.6

44.8Endgame61.2

124Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	41
teleop	129	122
endgame	35	17
foul	0	0
total	200	180

Result

Final score

200 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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