Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.32 – 119.56

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.8 ±13.5

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 24.75Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3009High Scalers

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 95.1Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 74.47Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.2 ±16.2

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 17.66Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 75.82Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5049Minerbots

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 26.08Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8229, 3009, 8503

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8229, 3009, 8503

Auto

41.8 22%

Teleop

112.9 59%

Endgame

35.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8338, 6413, 5049

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8338, 6413, 5049

Auto

24.8 19%

Teleop

88.4 67%

Endgame

18.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194.3pts

Blue projected score119.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.8
Score range: 91–223
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 161.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.8Season APEX341.2

41.8Auto24.8

112.9Teleop88.4

35.5Endgame18

56Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	45
teleop	135	77
endgame	42	48
foul	0	0
total	244	170

Result

Final score

244 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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