Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75.64 – 0

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 158.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.6 ±15.6

8387MECH Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 6.83Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 92.1Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -23.29Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.7 ±20.8

9151RoboLynx

Provisional

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 8.09Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6824LVA Robot Pigeons

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 19.95Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

11235Golden Ratio

Provisional

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX -38.27Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8387, 4421, 9059

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8387, 4421, 9059

Auto

15.4 23%

Teleop

9.7 14%

Endgame

43.0 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9151, 6824, 11235

/ 100 compat

Projected

-10.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9151, 6824, 11235

Auto

0.6 15%

Teleop

-4.4 0%

Endgame

7.8 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.6pts

Blue projected score-10.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.6
Score range: -29–105
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 160.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.6Season APEX180.7

15.4Auto0.6

9.7Teleop-4.4

43Endgame7.8

8Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	19
teleop	134	60
endgame	61	55
foul	0	5
total	253	139

Result

Final score

253 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 158.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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