Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.92 – 345.96

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

227 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.3 ±14.8

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 60.07Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 83.13Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10186feenx

Provisional

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 3.72Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.4 ±12.2

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 56.66Rank 6Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 90.39Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 198.91Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2438, 4270, 10186

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2438, 4270, 10186

Auto

18.9 14%

Teleop

89.5 65%

Endgame

29.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 991, 3882, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

346 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 991, 3882, 9406

Auto

70.7 21%

Teleop

184.9 54%

Endgame

83.7 25%

Strengths

· 9406 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.9pts

Blue projected score346pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -199
Score range: 118–375
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.3Season APEX410.4

18.9Auto70.7

89.5Teleop184.9

29Endgame83.7

67Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	45
teleop	116	166
endgame	66	98
foul	0	50
total	227	359

Result

Final score

227 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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