Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

196.27 – 235.75

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

321 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 88.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.7 ±11.1

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 138.04Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 44.46Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 13.77Rank 35Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.1 ±15.8

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 188.27Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9534Wolves Robotics (Basic HS)

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 24.54Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1726N.E.R.D.S. (Nifty Engineering Robotics Design Squad)

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 22.94Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7426, 5851, 4253

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7426, 5851, 4253

Auto

46.0 25%

Teleop

82.7 45%

Endgame

54.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8005, 9534, 1726

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8005, 9534, 1726

Auto

59.8 26%

Teleop

137.0 59%

Endgame

37.2 16%

Strengths

· 8005 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score196.3pts

Blue projected score235.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.5
Score range: 168–264
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 156.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

534.7Season APEX318.1

46Auto59.8

82.7Teleop137

54.5Endgame37.2

41Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	32
teleop	192	86
endgame	69	66
foul	15	0
total	321	184

Result

Final score

321 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 88.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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