Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.46 – 83.23

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.8 ±13.9

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 35.56Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 23.7Rank 6Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3009High Scalers

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 85.2Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.3 ±13.3

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 68.93Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -8.49Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 22.79Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2438, 991, 3009

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2438, 991, 3009

Auto

26.1 18%

Teleop

60.1 42%

Endgame

56.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10903, 9059, 9233

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10903, 9059, 9233

Auto

18.9 26%

Teleop

59.7 81%

Endgame

-5.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score144.5pts

Blue projected score83.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.2
Score range: 55–172
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 156.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.8Season APEX317.3

26.1Auto18.9

60.1Teleop59.7

56.4Endgame-5.2

63Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	20
teleop	154	43
endgame	80	21
foul	15	0
total	266	84

Result

Final score

266 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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