Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

158.39 – 348.12

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.8 ±16.6

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 133.15Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5049Minerbots

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 34.68Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

60Kingman FIRST Robotics Team 60 (The Bionic Bulldogs)

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX -9.44Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536 ±13

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 98.31Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8717Cyber Vipers

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 44.03Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 205.78Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3882, 5049, 60

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3882, 5049, 60

Auto

31.8 21%

Teleop

82.2 55%

Endgame

36.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8503, 8717, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8503, 8717, 7426

Auto

59.5 17%

Teleop

186.7 55%

Endgame

95.8 28%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score158.4pts

Blue projected score348.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -189.7
Score range: 125–381
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.8Season APEX536

31.8Auto59.5

82.2Teleop186.7

36.4Endgame95.8

50Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	55
teleop	25	227
endgame	29	88
foul	0	10
total	85	380

Result

Final score

85 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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