Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.25 – 100.26

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.9 ±15.1

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 23.86Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 14.88Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1726N.E.R.D.S. (Nifty Engineering Robotics Design Squad)

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 10.51Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.1 ±16.2

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 173.56Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11235Golden Ratio

Provisional

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX -40.74Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

60Kingman FIRST Robotics Team 60 (The Bionic Bulldogs)

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX -32.56Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5851, 8229, 1726

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5851, 8229, 1726

Auto

27.1 61%

Teleop

22.7 51%

Endgame

-5.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9406, 11235, 60

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 11235, 60

Auto

41.6 46%

Teleop

28.4 32%

Endgame

20.1 22%

Strengths

· 9406 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.3pts

Blue projected score100.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51
Score range: 21–128
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 157.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.9Season APEX294.1

27.1Auto41.6

22.7Teleop28.4

-5.1Endgame20.1

135Consistency207

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	59
teleop	75	72
endgame	23	14
foul	0	0
total	125	145

Result

Final score

125 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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