Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.09 – 184.43

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 89.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.4 ±11.9

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 122.65Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 105.86Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9534Wolves Robotics (Basic HS)

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 60.58Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±16.5

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 98.72Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 74.94Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3577Saint's Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 10.77Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3990, 4270, 9534

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3990, 4270, 9534

Auto

38.9 13%

Teleop

161.7 55%

Endgame

92.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8503, 7425, 3577

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8503, 7425, 3577

Auto

26.9 16%

Teleop

82.0 48%

Endgame

62.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score289.1pts

Blue projected score184.4pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.7
Score range: 156–317
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 154.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.4Season APEX354.2

38.9Auto26.9

161.7Teleop82

92.7Endgame62.1

46Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	31
teleop	71	101
endgame	24	76
foul	0	0
total	134	208

Result

Final score

134 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 89.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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