Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

21.23 – 132.44

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

89 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.5 ±19.2

6824LVA Robot Pigeons

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -4.04Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX -11.01Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9426CLAWBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 36.28Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.1 ±18.1

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 12.58Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 105.69Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10186feenx

Provisional

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 14.17Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6824, 9037, 9426

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6824, 9037, 9426

Auto

4.7 17%

Teleop

18.5 67%

Endgame

4.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10183, 2375, 10186

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10183, 2375, 10186

Auto

32.1 25%

Teleop

84.0 66%

Endgame

11.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score21.2pts

Blue projected score132.4pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.2
Score range: -7–160
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 157.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.5Season APEX245.1

4.7Auto32.1

18.5Teleop84

4.4Endgame11.6

139Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	15
teleop	61	49
endgame	6	13
foul	0	0
total	89	77

Result

Final score

89 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 61.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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