Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.96 – 25.69

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

89 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.4 ±16.5

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 37.13Rank 33Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 73.4Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5049Minerbots

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 31.43Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±20.8

9002Falcon Dynamics - Foothill High School

Provisional

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX -18.92Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8387MECH Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX -1.02Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9151RoboLynx

Provisional

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 45.63Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1165, 6479, 5049

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1165, 6479, 5049

Auto

26.4 19%

Teleop

81.9 58%

Endgame

33.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9002, 8387, 9151

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9002, 8387, 9151

Auto

16.6 70%

Teleop

-2.6 0%

Endgame

9.6 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142pts

Blue projected score25.7pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.3
Score range: -3–171
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 162.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.4Season APEX180.8

26.4Auto16.6

81.9Teleop-2.6

33.4Endgame9.6

62Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	11
teleop	55	8
endgame	19	2
foul	0	0
total	89	21

Result

Final score

89 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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