Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.2 – 70.61

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516 ±11.6

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX -3.71Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 75.39Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 15.52Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.8 ±17.7

1011CRUSH

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX -2.46Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11235Golden Ratio

Provisional

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX -18.32Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 91.39Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2438, 3990, 10903

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2438, 3990, 10903

Auto

25.8 28%

Teleop

53.3 59%

Endgame

12.0 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1011, 11235, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1011, 11235, 4270

Auto

11.4 15%

Teleop

59.9 81%

Endgame

2.6 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.2pts

Blue projected score70.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.6
Score range: 43–115
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 154.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516Season APEX319.8

25.8Auto11.4

53.3Teleop59.9

12Endgame2.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	13
teleop	137	27
endgame	70	29
foul	0	0
total	260	69

Result

Final score

260 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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