Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.17 – 119.45

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.6 ±13.3

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX -26.08Rank 35Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 112.08Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 5.17Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.1 ±15.6

9426CLAWBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 48.26Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 36.95Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 34.24Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4253, 8503, 9059

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4253, 8503, 9059

Auto

32.4 47%

Teleop

27.0 39%

Endgame

9.8 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9426, 10183, 8229

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9426, 10183, 8229

Auto

29.6 24%

Teleop

55.7 46%

Endgame

35.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.2pts

Blue projected score119.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.3
Score range: 62–148
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 158.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.6Season APEX371.1

32.4Auto29.6

27Teleop55.7

9.8Endgame35.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	26	41
endgame	33	7
foul	15	0
total	87	66

Result

Final score

87 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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