Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.21 – 27.1

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 5

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.5 ±15.6

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 99.62Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1726N.E.R.D.S. (Nifty Engineering Robotics Design Squad)

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 3.26Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 73.33Rank 6Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.9 ±20.8

988Steel Phoenix

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX -19.12Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1011CRUSH

Provisional

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 13.81Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8387MECH Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 32.41Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6413, 1726, 991

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6413, 1726, 991

Auto

31.4 18%

Teleop

95.4 55%

Endgame

47.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 988, 1011, 8387

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 988, 1011, 8387

Auto

15.9 59%

Teleop

-5.3 0%

Endgame

16.3 61%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176.2pts

Blue projected score27.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.1
Score range: -6–209
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.5Season APEX157.9

31.4Auto15.9

95.4Teleop-5.3

47.6Endgame16.3

34Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	5
teleop	63	0
endgame	46	0
foul	0	0
total	138	5

Result

Final score

138 – 5

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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