Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.33 – 204.21

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.5 ±14.7

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 57.49Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8387MECH Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 10.94Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 65.9Rank 3Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.3 ±16.2

7654Robot In Shed

Provisional

Season APEX 83Event APEX 75.26Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 79.69Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 49.26Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6413, 8387, 987

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6413, 8387, 987

Auto

46.1 36%

Teleop

64.8 51%

Endgame

16.5 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7654, 7183, 8338

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7654, 7183, 8338

Auto

47.2 23%

Teleop

114.9 57%

Endgame

40.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.3pts

Blue projected score204.2pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.9
Score range: 105–233
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 160.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.5Season APEX434.3

46.1Auto47.2

64.8Teleop114.9

16.5Endgame40.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	14
teleop	93	92
endgame	78	68
foul	15	0
total	216	174

Result

Final score

216 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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