Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.29 – 166.61

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 129.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.4 ±17

5049Minerbots

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 13.68Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10905Team LOVE

Season APEX 70Event APEX 61.04Rank 25Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 89

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 46.57Rank 6Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.9 ±11.2

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 36.62Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 79.41Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 50.58Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5049, 10905, 991

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5049, 10905, 991

Auto

28.7 25%

Teleop

36.9 32%

Endgame

50.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4421, 8005, 6479

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4421, 8005, 6479

Auto

44.3 28%

Teleop

95.0 61%

Endgame

17.0 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.3pts

Blue projected score166.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.3
Score range: 93–195
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.4Season APEX546.9

28.7Auto44.3

36.9Teleop95

50.3Endgame17

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	86
teleop	69	209
endgame	27	110
foul	0	0
total	101	405

Result

Final score

101 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 129.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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