Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.18 – 68.27

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.9 ±13.5

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 35.1Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 14.68Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8717Cyber Vipers

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 94.4Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.5 ±18.4

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 39.57Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1726N.E.R.D.S. (Nifty Engineering Robotics Design Squad)

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 16.71Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10186feenx

Provisional

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 11.99Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3990, 10183, 8717

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3990, 10183, 8717

Auto

11.6 8%

Teleop

105.6 69%

Endgame

35.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10903, 1726, 10186

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10903, 1726, 10186

Auto

14.0 20%

Teleop

56.8 81%

Endgame

-0.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score144.2pts

Blue projected score68.3pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.9
Score range: 40–172
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 153.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.9Season APEX289.5

11.6Auto14

105.6Teleop56.8

35.1Endgame-0.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	31
teleop	135	46
endgame	62	3
foul	0	0
total	236	80

Result

Final score

236 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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