Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.75 – 141.72

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 65 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.3 ±15.3

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 94.35Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 57.06Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9002Falcon Dynamics - Foothill High School

Provisional

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 20.34Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.7 ±13.3

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 94.22Rank 4Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9233Luminous Robotics Team

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 11.72Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 35.78Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4270, 9059, 9002

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4270, 9059, 9002

Auto

33.2 20%

Teleop

107.6 64%

Endgame

27.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8503, 9233, 5851

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8503, 9233, 5851

Auto

13.0 9%

Teleop

98.0 68%

Endgame

32.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171.8pts

Blue projected score141.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30
Score range: 114–200
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 157.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.3Season APEX297.7

33.2Auto13

107.6Teleop98

27.8Endgame32.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	31
teleop	11	72
endgame	20	25
foul	0	25
total	53	153

Result

Final score

53 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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