Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.27 – 157.46

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 107.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.4 ±17.7

2375Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 100.57Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11235Golden Ratio

Provisional

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 4.84Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 14.86Rank 35Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 620.7 ±11.2

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 36Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 12.89Rank 33Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 108.57Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2375, 11235, 4253

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2375, 11235, 4253

Auto

16.8 14%

Teleop

86.7 72%

Endgame

17.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7183, 1165, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7183, 1165, 7426

Auto

24.3 16%

Teleop

89.6 57%

Endgame

42.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.3pts

Blue projected score157.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.2
Score range: 93–184
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.4Season APEX620.7

16.8Auto24.3

86.7Teleop89.6

17Endgame42.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	71
teleop	1	134
endgame	0	85
foul	15	0
total	38	290

Result

Final score

38 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 107.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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