Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.99 – 133.01

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 68 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.8 ±15.8

8387MECH Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX -1.44Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 57.14Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10905Team LOVE

Season APEX 70Event APEX 46.29Rank 25Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.7 ±12.4

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 38.57Rank 3Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 57.14Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 37.3Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8387, 8005, 10905

/ 100 compat

Projected

102 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8387, 8005, 10905

Auto

20.0 19%

Teleop

62.7 60%

Endgame

21.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 987, 8338, 8229

/ 100 compat

Projected

133 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 987, 8338, 8229

Auto

26.8 20%

Teleop

83.2 62%

Endgame

23.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102pts

Blue projected score133pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 75–160
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.8Season APEX465.7

20Auto26.8

62.7Teleop83.2

21Endgame23.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	55
teleop	87	88
endgame	22	42
foul	20	0
total	186	185

Result

Final score

186 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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