Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.56 – 105.06

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 88.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432 ±12.9

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 39.43Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 25.42Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 51.71Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±16.5

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 39.43Rank 6Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9426CLAWBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 14Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 51.63Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6413, 3882, 9037

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6413, 3882, 9037

Auto

29.5 25%

Teleop

57.9 50%

Endgame

29.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 991, 9426, 7425

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 991, 9426, 7425

Auto

19.7 18%

Teleop

65.4 61%

Endgame

21.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.6pts

Blue projected score105.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.5
Score range: 79–143
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 144.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432Season APEX309.6

29.5Auto19.7

57.9Teleop65.4

29.5Endgame21.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	32
teleop	147	51
endgame	28	89
foul	0	0
total	226	172

Result

Final score

226 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 88.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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