Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.89 – 131.41

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.9 ±14.7

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 56.6Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 133.82Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3577Saint's Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 14.47Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.8 ±16

7654Robot In Shed

Provisional

Season APEX 83Event APEX 24.56Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 93.63Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 13.22Rank 33Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8229, 4421, 3577

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8229, 4421, 3577

Auto

45.4 23%

Teleop

103.2 53%

Endgame

46.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7654, 2438, 1165

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7654, 2438, 1165

Auto

20.6 16%

Teleop

66.2 50%

Endgame

44.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score204.9pts

Blue projected score131.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.5
Score range: 98–238
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 185.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.9Season APEX273.8

45.4Auto20.6

103.2Teleop66.2

46.9Endgame44.3

96Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	14
teleop	71	67
endgame	32	36
foul	5	0
total	136	117

Result

Final score

136 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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