Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

1 – 53.57

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

1 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 64.3 ±41.7

9457Robot X

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX -1.31Rank 5Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9996Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -5.32Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 31Event APEX -3.08Rank 11Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9983Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9982Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9991Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 35.79Rank 9Record 9-11-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9457, 9996, 10994

/ 100 compat

Projected

-9.7 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9457, 9996, 10994

Auto

6.7 0%

Teleop

-6.6 100%

Endgame

-6.2 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9983, 9982, 9991

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9983, 9982, 9991

Auto

11.2 25%

Teleop

22.7 50%

Endgame

11.4 25%

Strengths

· 9991 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.81 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score-9.7pts

Blue projected score46.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.6
Score range: -5–60
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-09-04
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 1 vs event baseline 31.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

64.3Season APEX0

6.7Auto8.1

-6.6Teleop17.4

-6.2Endgame9.3

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	0
teleop	0	0
endgame	0	0
foul	0	0
total	1	0

Result

Final score

1 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 26.8 pts