Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.8 – 68.95

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.2 ±10.4

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 44.91Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 25.25Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 36.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.2 ±11

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 32.01Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 13.64Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 23.3Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 193, 41, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 193, 41, 222

Auto

9.9 10%

Teleop

60.7 59%

Endgame

31.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8706, 10995, 9015

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8706, 10995, 9015

Auto

19.1 29%

Teleop

34.0 51%

Endgame

13.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.8pts

Blue projected score69pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.8
Score range: 48–128
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.2Season APEX250.2

9.9Auto19.1

60.7Teleop34

31.9Endgame13.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	15
teleop	74	40
endgame	49	7
foul	0	0
total	124	62

Result

Final score

124 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts