Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.55 – 165.57

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.9 ±9.3

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 25.5Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 125.72Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 49.33Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 625.4 ±9.3

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 23.95Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 68.52Rank 4Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 73.1Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1279, 5895, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 5895, 1676

Auto

35.0 17%

Teleop

118.9 59%

Endgame

48.2 24%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 555, 3637, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 555, 3637, 11

Auto

23.9 15%

Teleop

100.0 63%

Endgame

34.4 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.6pts

Blue projected score165.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35
Score range: 145–222
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 116.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

534.9Season APEX625.4

35Auto23.9

118.9Teleop100

48.2Endgame34.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	16
teleop	142	67
endgame	36	12
foul	0	0
total	215	95

Result

Final score

215 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts