Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.25 – 36.48

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.3 ±12.2

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 27.15Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 16.49Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 35.61Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±11

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 14.09Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 0.8Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 21.59Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8117, 430, 3142

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8117, 430, 3142

Auto

12.3 16%

Teleop

36.1 46%

Endgame

30.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 223, 6945, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 223, 6945, 4285

Auto

11.5 35%

Teleop

10.6 32%

Endgame

11.0 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.3pts

Blue projected score36.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.8
Score range: 15–100
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.3Season APEX277.8

12.3Auto11.5

36.1Teleop10.6

30Endgame11

5Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	20
teleop	17	61
endgame	33	30
foul	0	0
total	63	111

Result

Final score

63 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 pts