Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.58 – 40.56

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 625.4 ±9.3

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 22.14Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 68.15Rank 4Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 71.29Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.7 ±11.6

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -2.24Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 0.26Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 42.54Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 555, 3637, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 555, 3637, 11

Auto

20.8 13%

Teleop

97.8 61%

Endgame

41.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1811, 4361, 219

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1811, 4361, 219

Auto

7.2 19%

Teleop

21.6 56%

Endgame

10.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.6pts

Blue projected score40.6pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121
Score range: 20–183
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

625.4Season APEX156.7

20.8Auto7.2

97.8Teleop21.6

41Endgame10

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	6
teleop	121	58
endgame	14	33
foul	30	15
total	202	112

Result

Final score

202 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts