Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.67 – 62.35

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.9 ±9.3

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 32.55Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 133.59Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 57.53Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.2 ±11

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 11.92Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 29.8Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 20.63Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1279, 5895, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 5895, 1676

Auto

34.9 16%

Teleop

133.1 59%

Endgame

56.1 25%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10995, 8706, 9015

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10995, 8706, 9015

Auto

20.5 35%

Teleop

28.1 48%

Endgame

9.9 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score223.7pts

Blue projected score62.4pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.3
Score range: 41–245
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

534.9Season APEX250.2

34.9Auto20.5

133.1Teleop28.1

56.1Endgame9.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	19
teleop	71	46
endgame	16	27
foul	0	0
total	125	92

Result

Final score

125 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts