Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.47 – 36.62

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.2 ±10.4

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 39.02Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 18.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 31.74Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±11

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 13.92Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 0.74Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 21.96Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 193, 41, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 193, 41, 222

Auto

9.9 12%

Teleop

50.4 60%

Endgame

23.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 223, 6945, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 223, 6945, 4285

Auto

10.6 34%

Teleop

15.2 49%

Endgame

5.4 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.5pts

Blue projected score36.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.9
Score range: 16–110
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.2Season APEX277.8

9.9Auto10.6

50.4Teleop15.2

23.4Endgame5.4

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	93	1
endgame	57	31
foul	0	0
total	166	49

Result

Final score

166 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 pts