Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.78 – 88.51

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 625.4 ±9.3

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 20.24Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 66.06Rank 4Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 69.48Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.5 ±11

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 45.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 4.87Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 37.8Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 555, 3637, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 555, 3637, 11

Auto

22.9 16%

Teleop

95.6 65%

Endgame

27.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 193, 6016, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 193, 6016, 222

Auto

12.2 14%

Teleop

46.8 52%

Endgame

31.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.8pts

Blue projected score88.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.3
Score range: 68–177
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

625.4Season APEX291.5

22.9Auto12.2

95.6Teleop46.8

27.9Endgame31.1

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	10
teleop	104	32
endgame	52	24
foul	0	10
total	191	76

Result

Final score

191 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts