Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

376.2 – 204.28

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 73.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 710.6 ±9.3

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 206.09Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 16.41Rank 18Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 153.7Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.9 ±9.3

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 26.75Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 126.73Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 50.8Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 316, 1672, 8513

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 316, 1672, 8513

Auto

94.7 26%

Teleop

200.5 55%

Endgame

66.9 18%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1279, 5895, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 5895, 1676

Auto

35.6 17%

Teleop

123.7 60%

Endgame

46.6 23%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score376.2pts

Blue projected score204.3pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.9
Score range: 183–397
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 116.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

710.6Season APEX534.9

94.7Auto35.6

200.5Teleop123.7

66.9Endgame46.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	59
teleop	94	116
endgame	75	60
foul	20	0
total	260	235

Result

Final score

260 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 73.5 pts

Match videos

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