Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.83 – 61.59

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±11

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 28.24Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 48.57Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 11.02Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.4 ±12.8

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 2Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 48.57Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 11.02Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4285, 223, 5992

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4285, 223, 5992

Auto

-1.4 0%

Teleop

53.9 61%

Endgame

35.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8771, 8707, 193

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8771, 8707, 193

Auto

-1.8 0%

Teleop

38.3 62%

Endgame

24.9 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.8pts

Blue projected score61.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.2
Score range: 45–105
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 92.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.6Season APEX219.4

-1.4Auto-1.8

53.9Teleop38.3

35.2Endgame24.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	7
teleop	68	31
endgame	5	8
foul	0	0
total	100	46

Result

Final score

100 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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