Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.9 – 96.86

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 89.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.4 ±11.2

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 35.71Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 9.55Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 21.64Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564 ±9.3

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 23.14Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 67.43Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 6.29Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11, 430, 8706

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11, 430, 8706

Auto

10.4 16%

Teleop

36.6 55%

Endgame

19.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1676, 8513, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1676, 8513, 1811

Auto

5.2 5%

Teleop

68.9 72%

Endgame

21.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.9pts

Blue projected score96.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30
Score range: 53–111
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 78.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.4Season APEX564

10.4Auto5.2

36.6Teleop68.9

19.9Endgame21.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	69
teleop	76	122
endgame	43	18
foul	0	0
total	134	209

Result

Final score

134 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 89.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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