Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.68 – 37.13

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

26 – 16

Prediction missed · off by 11.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 109 ±12.1

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 13.34Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 5.49Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 4.85Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.1 ±11

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 6.98Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 24.91Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 5.24Rank 18Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10995, 4361, 6016

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10995, 4361, 6016

Auto

10.5 44%

Teleop

4.1 17%

Endgame

9.1 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6945, 1279, 1672

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6945, 1279, 1672

Auto

16.8 53%

Teleop

-3.4 0%

Endgame

18.1 57%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23.7pts

Blue projected score37.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.5
Score range: 2–59
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 42 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

109Season APEX154.1

10.5Auto16.8

4.1Teleop-3.4

9.1Endgame18.1

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	7
teleop	7	8
endgame	2	1
foul	0	0
total	26	16

Result

Final score

26 – 16

Prediction missed · off by 11.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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