Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.9 – 39.25

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.5 ±11.6

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 3.99Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 40.87Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 24.04Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.5 ±12.2

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 0.44Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 26.22Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 12.59Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4361, 3142, 555

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4361, 3142, 555

Auto

4.7 7%

Teleop

36.9 53%

Endgame

28.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6016, 222, 430

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6016, 222, 430

Auto

10.4 26%

Teleop

18.7 46%

Endgame

11.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.9pts

Blue projected score39.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.7
Score range: 19–89
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 113.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.5Season APEX174.5

4.7Auto10.4

36.9Teleop18.7

28.1Endgame11.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	9
teleop	22	43
endgame	15	43
foul	0	15
total	51	110

Result

Final score

51 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree