Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.66 – 34.78

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462 ±9.8

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 58.81Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 18.56Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 30.29Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.7 ±11

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 15.31Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -2.23Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 21.7Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1676, 41, 8706

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1676, 41, 8706

Auto

12.1 13%

Teleop

55.9 58%

Endgame

28.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9116, 1811, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9116, 1811, 4285

Auto

5.6 17%

Teleop

33.5 100%

Endgame

-6.4 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.7pts

Blue projected score34.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.9
Score range: 14–129
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 114.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462Season APEX226.7

12.1Auto5.6

55.9Teleop33.5

28.7Endgame-6.4

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	6
teleop	72	12
endgame	28	25
foul	0	0
total	107	43

Result

Final score

107 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree