Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.94 – 154.67

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 94.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.7 ±11.2

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 18.62Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 128.95Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -18.63Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.4 ±11.7

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 4.47Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 11.31Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 138.89Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1279, 8513, 8707

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 8513, 8707

Auto

35.2 28%

Teleop

67.9 54%

Endgame

22.5 18%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8771, 10995, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8771, 10995, 5895

Auto

45.2 29%

Teleop

91.4 58%

Endgame

19.9 13%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.9pts

Blue projected score154.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.7
Score range: 109–175
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.7Season APEX334.4

35.2Auto45.2

67.9Teleop91.4

22.5Endgame19.9

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	26
teleop	154	100
endgame	90	30
foul	5	0
total	316	156

Result

Final score

316 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 94.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree