Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.9 – 233.09

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.4 ±11.6

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 32.12Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 3.9Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 17.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497 ±9.8

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 15.5Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 23.5Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 194.09Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 193, 6945, 9116

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 193, 6945, 9116

Auto

8.8 18%

Teleop

27.9 58%

Endgame

11.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1279, 555, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 555, 316

Auto

29.7 13%

Teleop

133.9 58%

Endgame

65.8 29%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.9pts

Blue projected score233.1pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -179.2
Score range: 34–253
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.4Season APEX497

8.8Auto29.7

27.9Teleop133.9

11.1Endgame65.8

32Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	62
teleop	21	138
endgame	16	80
foul	0	0
total	47	280

Result

Final score

47 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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