Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.57 – 63.26

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.7 ±10.7

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 63.75Rank 4Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 70.09Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 2.73Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 109.2 ±11.6

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 48.93Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 1.27Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 13.06Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3637, 11, 8771

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3637, 11, 8771

Auto

26.2 19%

Teleop

76.8 56%

Endgame

34.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3142, 1811, 10995

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3142, 1811, 10995

Auto

18.3 26%

Teleop

35.4 50%

Endgame

17.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.6pts

Blue projected score63.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.3
Score range: 43–157
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 109.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.7Season APEX109.2

26.2Auto18.3

76.8Teleop35.4

34.3Endgame17.5

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	9
teleop	112	17
endgame	29	10
foul	0	5
total	169	41

Result

Final score

169 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree