Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.63 – 19.37

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.1 ±11.2

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 38.45Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 16.95Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 153.23Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.1 ±11.7

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX -10.75Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 17.17Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 12.95Rank 18Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 193, 430, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 193, 430, 5895

Auto

41.3 20%

Teleop

119.4 58%

Endgame

44.1 22%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 752, 41, 1672

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 752, 41, 1672

Auto

8.1 43%

Teleop

6.3 34%

Endgame

4.4 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208.6pts

Blue projected score19.4pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.3
Score range: -1–229
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.1Season APEX187.1

41.3Auto8.1

119.4Teleop6.3

44.1Endgame4.4

41Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	1
teleop	78	0
endgame	26	0
foul	0	45
total	137	46

Result

Final score

137 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree