Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.82 – 89.54

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 3.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225 ±11

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 13.83Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 42.19Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 13.8Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.5 ±9.8

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 20.78Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 68.09Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 0.67Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1279, 219, 223

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 219, 223

Auto

3.6 6%

Teleop

40.9 66%

Endgame

17.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 555, 11, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 555, 11, 1811

Auto

14.7 16%

Teleop

50.7 55%

Endgame

26.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.8pts

Blue projected score89.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.7
Score range: 50–110
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225Season APEX422.5

3.6Auto14.7

40.9Teleop50.7

17.3Endgame26.5

23Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	8
teleop	25	58
endgame	45	26
foul	0	0
total	75	92

Result

Final score

75 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 3.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree