Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

47.04 – 0.4

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 119.8 ±12.2

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 15.15Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 19.08Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 12.81Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.3 ±11

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 8.16Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -6.05Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -1.71Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9116, 430, 1279

/ 100 compat

Projected

47 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9116, 430, 1279

Auto

-12.7 0%

Teleop

33.4 71%

Endgame

26.3 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 223, 1811, 4361

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 223, 1811, 4361

Auto

-0.3 0%

Teleop

-3.5 0%

Endgame

6.5 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47pts

Blue projected score0.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.6
Score range: -20–67
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 113 vs event baseline 111.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

119.8Season APEX179.3

-12.7Auto-0.3

33.4Teleop-3.5

26.3Endgame6.5

2Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	10
teleop	27	36
endgame	9	12
foul	10	0
total	55	58

Result

Final score

55 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree