Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

158.04 – 241.93

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

163 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±10.5

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 124.27Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 31.09Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 2.68Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422 ±11.1

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 44.15Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 188.91Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 8.87Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8513, 8706, 6945

/ 100 compat

Projected

158 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8513, 8706, 6945

Auto

44.3 29%

Teleop

92.2 60%

Endgame

18.3 12%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5992, 316, 10995

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5992, 316, 10995

Auto

45.1 19%

Teleop

133.6 56%

Endgame

61.5 26%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158pts

Blue projected score241.9pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.9
Score range: 139–261
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 108.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.7Season APEX422

44.3Auto45.1

92.2Teleop133.6

18.3Endgame61.5

0Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	54
teleop	32	147
endgame	20	74
foul	50	5
total	163	280

Result

Final score

163 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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