Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

7.78 – 28.45

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

31 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.2 ±12.2

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 19.57Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -2.08Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -9.71Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.8 ±11.7

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -3.43Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX -10.27Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 42.15Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9015, 4361, 8707

/ 100 compat

Projected

7.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9015, 4361, 8707

Auto

-6.6 0%

Teleop

6.2 100%

Endgame

6.6 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1811, 752, 193

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1811, 752, 193

Auto

7.4 24%

Teleop

12.8 42%

Endgame

10.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score7.8pts

Blue projected score28.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.7
Score range: -12–48
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 51 vs event baseline 110.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.2Season APEX215.8

-6.6Auto7.4

6.2Teleop12.8

6.6Endgame10.3

25Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	13
teleop	12	1
endgame	6	1
foul	0	5
total	31	20

Result

Final score

31 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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