Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.7 – 195.74

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222 ±11

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 2.51Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 47.59Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 37.6Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379 ±11.1

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 17.51Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 36.48Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 141.75Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1811, 219, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1811, 219, 222

Auto

8.3 10%

Teleop

57.6 67%

Endgame

19.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9116, 3142, 8513

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9116, 3142, 8513

Auto

38.6 20%

Teleop

112.5 60%

Endgame

37.4 20%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.7pts

Blue projected score195.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108
Score range: 66–218
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222Season APEX379

8.3Auto38.6

57.6Teleop112.5

19.6Endgame37.4

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	5
teleop	13	182
endgame	1	44
foul	0	5
total	22	236

Result

Final score

22 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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