Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.26 – 246.04

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373 ±11.2

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 41.62Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 13.07Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 10.57Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.6 ±9.9

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 52.23Rank 4Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 151.3Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 42.51Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1676, 555, 430

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1676, 555, 430

Auto

9.1 13%

Teleop

36.5 54%

Endgame

22.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3637, 5895, 219

/ 100 compat

Projected

246 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3637, 5895, 219

Auto

50.3 21%

Teleop

151.5 63%

Endgame

37.5 16%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.3pts

Blue projected score246pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -180.8
Score range: 46–265
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 429 vs event baseline 107.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373Season APEX582.6

9.1Auto50.3

36.5Teleop151.5

22Endgame37.5

51Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	49
teleop	89	144
endgame	47	60
foul	5	20
total	156	273

Result

Final score

156 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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